The Youngstown State Penguins (19-6, 11-3 Horizon) battle the Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons (15-10, 7-7) Friday. Tip from Allen County War Memorial Coliseum is set for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Youngstown State vs. Purdue Fort Wayneodds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
Youngstown State has won 12 of its last 14 games, but one of those losses was a 76-71 home loss to Purdue Fort Wayne, failing to cover as a 4-point home favorite on Dec. 31. The Under (150) hit in that meeting.
The Penguins enter Friday’s road game off a 74-56 home win over Northern Kentucky Saturday, covering as 3-point home favorites. They have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 outings and are 15-8 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Mastodons are 2-3 straight up over their last 5 and are 1-4 ATS in that span. They are coming off an 85-52 road loss to Detroit Mercy Saturday, failing to cover as 2-point underdogs. Purdue Fort Wayne is 9-14 ATS on the season.
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Youngstown State at Purdue Fort Wayneodds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; accessUSA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Off the board (OTB)
- Against the spread (ATS): Youngstown State -3.5 (-115) | Purdue Fort Wayne +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 151.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Youngstown State at Purdue Fort Wayne picks and predictions
Prediction
Youngstown State 80, Purdue Fort Wayne 73
Moneyline
The moneyline was OTB at the time of publication.
However, this will be an AVOID when it opens. Purdue Fort Wayne has lost 2 of its last 3 home games and is 4-5 over its last 9 games as well. Pass on backing the home underdog to pull off the upset despite that it won the first meeting.
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Against the spread
BET YOUNGSTOWN STATE -3.5 (-115).
Purdue Fort Wayne has not performed well as of late. It has lost 2 of its last 5 by at least 20 points and is just 2-8 ATS over its last 10 games.
The Mastodons are a conference-worst 3-11 ATS against Horizon opponents while Youngstown State is 9-5 ATS. Youngstown State is also 6-2 ATS as a road favorite, so this is a position it has thrived in.
While Purdue Fort Wayne is elite at defending the perimeter, Youngstown State can score at all levels, sitting 10th in the nation in field goal percentage (49.3%). Considering its offensive skill set and season-long ability to cover on the road, back YOUNGSTOWN STATE -3.5 (-115).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 151.5 (-105).
Youngstown State has an electric offense, averaging 83.6 points per game (8th). It also has a flawed defense, sitting 292nd in the NCAA in opponents’ field goal percentage (45.6%). Combine the two, and it is easy to see why the Penguins are 16-7 O/U this season. They are 9-5 O/U in conference games.
Purdue Fort Wayne is 6-8 O/U in conference games and 4-5 O/U at home. The Mastodons average 74.4 points per game. Put it all together, and the OVER 151.5 (-105) appears to be the stronger play.
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